|
|
 |
|
Monthly Market Update
May 2026
The numbers below come straight from MLS — extracted by our team, broken down further than the board reports, and read in plain English. Here's what the market did, and what it means for your next move.
|
|
Stats Corner
May Snapshot
Extracted daily from MLS by SYNERGY · GTA-wide, all residential
|
6,275
homes sold
▲ 10.3% MoM |
|
$1.08M
avg. sale price
▲ 1.8% MoM |
|
22.9%
sold over asking
▲ 0.9 pts MoM |
| Metric | May |
April | Change |
| Average Price | $1,079,403 | $1,060,825 | +1.8% |
| Median Price | $920,000 | $888,000 | +3.6% |
| Sales Volume | 6,275 | 5,691 | +10.3% |
| Sold Over Asking | 22.9% | 22.0% | +0.9 pts |
|
|
|
Average Freehold Price by Region · Jan–May
5 regions vs. GTA overall · detached, semi & town · SYNERGY MLS extract
|
|
Average Condo Price by Region · Jan–May
5 regions vs. GTA overall · apt & town · SYNERGY MLS extract
|
|
SYNERGY's Read
The jump from a condo to a house is smaller than most people think. A freehold in Durham (~$866K) averages only about $170K more than a typical Toronto condo (~$697K) — so moving one region out can buy a lot more space for the money. And prices are climbing in every region right now, not just downtown. When the whole market moves together like this, demand is usually broad and here to stay — which means waiting tends to cost buyers more than it saves.
|
|
|
The Story in the Data
Five straight months of acceleration
Each bar below is the number of homes that sold that month — a read on how active the market is.
Since January, monthly sales have more than doubled (+110%), the average price is up ~11%, and the share of homes selling over asking climbed from 1-in-7 to nearly 1-in-4. Momentum is firmly with sellers heading into summer.
Competition: the share selling over asking
How often homes sold above their list price each month — a read on how competitive buyers have been.
| What "sold over asking" means: a home sold above its list price — not necessarily above market value, since homes are often listed below market on purpose to spark competing offers. Read it as a gauge of buyer competition, not price growth. For where values actually sit, the average-price charts above are the better guide. |
Even at 23%, most homes still sell at or below asking — this is competition returning to well-priced listings, not blanket bidding wars. The direction is the story: buyer urgency has built steadily since winter.
|
So what does this mean for you?
|
As a Seller
Nearly 1 in 4 homes sold over asking, and inventory is tightening. Demand hasn't gone anywhere for properly priced, well-presented homes. The advantage goes to sellers who launch with a clear strategy, not a hopeful number.
|
|
As a Buyer
Prices remain below last year and condos are softer (only 12% over asking), so leverage still exists — but the window is narrowing every month. Know the monthly-payment math before you shop, not after.
|
|
Neighbourhood spotlight: Durham Region
780 homes traded in Durham in May at an $851K average, 28% over asking — hotter than the GTA overall. Sales have climbed steadily from 411 in January, and Ajax buyers were the most competitive.
| Municipality | Sold | Avg Price | Over Asking |
| Oshawa | 179 | $709,449 | 29.6% |
| Whitby | 142 | $950,156 | 28.9% |
| Clarington | 132 | $835,804 | 23.5% |
| Ajax | 127 | $839,188 | 34.6% |
| Pickering | 126 | $927,422 | 31.7% |
|
|
Latest News
What we're watching
|
First-time buyers: the federal GST rebate is open
What Happened
The CRA is now accepting applications for the federal first-time home buyers' GST/HST rebate — up to 100% of the federal GST on a qualifying new home priced up to $1M (max $50,000), phasing down to zero by $1.5M. It stacks with the existing Ontario new housing rebate (max $24,000), and builders can credit it at closing.
| On a $1M new home | Rebate |
| Federal FTHB GST/HST rebate | $50,000 |
| Existing Ontario new housing rebate | $24,000 (max) |
| Clearly available today | $74,000 |
| If Ontario's proposed 8% rebate passes | up to ~$130,000 |
Our Take
For a GTA pre-construction home around $1M, we'd underwrite ~$74,000 as clearly supported by current CRA guidance, and treat the additional Ontario rebate as upside until the legislation and forms are confirmed.
This isn't tax advice — eligibility and amounts depend on your situation, so confirm the details with a professional before you rely on them.
|
Buying pre-construction? Our team makes sure you qualify for every available rebate and incentive — and that the right forms get filed.
|
|
|
A rental-building boom is pushing rents down
What Happened
CMHC's June 9 mid-year update shows asking rents still falling in Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary as new supply outpaces demand. Two-bedroom asking rents are down roughly 6% in Toronto and about 10% in Vancouver since early 2024, and landlords are now dangling incentives — discounted parking, move-in credits, even several months of free rent — to fill newly completed units. The supply behind it is being driven by CMHC's MLI Select financing (up to 95% loan-to-cost, 50-year amortizations), which has pushed purpose-built rental starts to their highest in decades.
|
▼ 6%
Toronto
|
|
▼ 8%
Calgary
|
|
▼ 10%
Vancouver
|
2-bedroom asking rents, change since early 2024 · CMHC
Our Take
One nuance worth knowing: it's asking rents (what's advertised for vacant units) that are easing — the average rent actually paid across occupied units is still edging up, driven mainly by older units that sat well below market for years resetting to current market rates as they turn over. But with MLI Select plus development charges being cut or waived, more supply keeps coming, so the easing should continue. That's more choice and negotiating room for renters; for investors, it's a reason to build a more conservative rent forecast into your underwriting.
 |
On the ground
"I moved 12 families into rentals just last month, and I'm seeing it firsthand — landlords have gotten more flexible, and rents have softened."
— Heaven Kaymen
|
|
|
Links go to third-party articles; we can't guarantee their accuracy — always confirm the specifics for your own situation.
Have a question about how any of this affects your move? Just reply to this email — you'll get our honest take.
|
Rate Watch
Best 5-Year Fixed 4.29% |
|
Best 5-Year Variable 3.60% |
|
BoC Overnight Rate 2.25% No change Jun 10 · next Jul 15 |
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% at its June 10 meeting — no change — with the next decision July 15 (prime ~4.45%). The lowest rate isn't always the best strategy; it depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. Read the Bank's statement →
|
How rates connect
Variable rates follow the Bank of Canada. When the Bank moves its rate, the banks' prime rate moves with it — and variable mortgages and credit lines are priced off prime.
Fixed rates follow the bond market. They track Government of Canada bond yields, which move on their own — so a fixed rate can change even when the Bank holds steady.
|
|
Terrence's Tax Tip
 |
First-time buyer? Stack two accounts. The FHSA lets you put away up to $8,000 a year (to a $40,000 lifetime max) — deductible going in, tax-free coming out for a home. Layer the RRSP Home Buyers' Plan on top (up to $60,000) and you've built a sizable, tax-efficient down payment. The trick is sequencing and timing — open the FHSA early to start the clock, and get the withdrawal order right.
General information only — not tax advice. Every situation is different, so please get professional guidance before acting.
|
|
|
Synergy Sweepstakes
Win two tickets to the Blue Jays
Enter our free draw for a pair of seats to Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros — on us. No purchase necessary, one entry per household.
|
|
This month's featured listings
For Lease
183 Wellington St W #3503
Ritz-Carlton · Waterfront
$9,000/mo · 2 bd / 2 ba · ~1,400 sq ft. Executive suite with 10-ft ceilings, panoramic city-and-lake views and designer finishes — concierge, gym, indoor pool and rooftop deck.
|
|
For Sale
4060 Lawrence Ave E #402
West Hill
$319,990 · 2 bd / 1 ba · 2-storey, 1,000+ sq ft. Renovated with new flooring, a large balcony and ensuite laundry — gym, indoor pool and parking included. A smart entry-level buy.
|
View all active SYNERGY listings →
|
|
SYNERGY Seller Advantage
We finance your pre-sale renovations
Need to sell but your home needs work? We help fund strategic pre-sale renovations so it shows better and sells for more. Backed by 135+ 5-star reviews.
|
|
|
In-Person Seminar · Saturday, June 13
Renting vs. Buying: what's the best move?
1:30–2:30 PM (doors at 1 PM) · In-person · 5045 Orbitor Dr, Suite 102, Mississauga, ON
 |
Andres Ramirez |
|
|
 |
Ian Serota |
|
Should you keep renting or buy now? Andres and Ian walk through the real numbers — rent vs. own, rates, and what today's market means for your timing. Free to attend, but seats are limited.
|
Additional resources
SYNERGY Sweepstakes
Win two Blue Jays tickets — enter this month's free draw.
Enter the Draw → |
|
SYNERGY Savings
10–20% off Little Canada, the Toronto Zoo & Ripley’s Aquarium.
Get the Codes → |
|
SOL Properties
Relocation, investment & snowbird living beyond the GTA.
Visit SOL → |
Sweepstakes is a random draw, open to Ontario residents of the age of majority, and is not contingent on any transaction.
|
Thinking about your next move?
Whether you're buying your first home, selling a family property, growing an investment portfolio, or acquiring commercial real estate, our team brings the experience to help you decide with confidence.
Why SYNERGY
| ✓ 50+ years combined experience | ✓ $500M+ in real estate sold | | ✓ Residential, commercial, investment & pre-construction | ✓ Market intelligence from daily MLS analysis | | ✓ In-house tax, investment & financial-planning insight | ✓ Trusted across the GTA & Durham Region |
|
SYNERGY Real Estate Group · 416-809-SOLD (7653) · admin@synergysold.ca · REAL Broker Ontario Ltd.
You're receiving this because you're a client or contact of SYNERGY Real Estate.
Unsubscribe · Update preferences
This newsletter is provided for general information only and is not tax, legal, financial, or real estate advice; every situation is different, so please consult the appropriate professional before acting. Market figures are drawn from TRREB/MLS data believed reliable but are not guaranteed. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
|
|
