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Monthly Market Update
July 2026
The numbers below come straight from MLS — extracted by our team, broken down further than the board reports, and read in plain English. Here's what the market did, and what it means for your next move.
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Stats Corner
July Snapshot
Extracted daily from MLS by SYNERGY · GTA-wide, all residential
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5,773
homes sold
▼ 11.3% MoM |
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$1.01M
avg. sale price
▼ 5.2% MoM |
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18.2%
sold over asking
▼ 3.5 pts MoM |
| Metric | July |
June | Change |
| Average Price | $1,010,458 | $1,065,780 | −5.2% |
| Median Price | $865,000 | $897,125 | −3.6% |
| Sales Volume | 5,773 | 6,510 | −11.3% |
| Sold Over Asking | 18.2% | 21.7% | −3.5 pts |
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Average Freehold Price by Region · Jan–Jul
5 regions vs. GTA overall · detached, semi & town · SYNERGY MLS extract
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Average Condo Price by Region · Jan–Jul
5 regions vs. GTA overall · apt & town · SYNERGY MLS extract
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SYNERGY's Read
July handed buyers their first real discount of the year — and it came almost entirely from the expensive half of the market. Freehold averages pulled back in every single region (Toronto houses went from $1.52M in June to $1.40M), while condos barely moved at $650K. When houses soften and condos hold, the ladder gets shorter: the jump from a Toronto condo (~$680K) to a Durham house (~$897K) is now about $217K — the smallest gap we've tracked this year. The pause also wasn’t uniform: York’s sales fell hardest (−17%) yet its prices barely moved (−2.1%), while Toronto gave back the most (−6.7%) and Durham held firmest. Pullbacks like this reward the prepared; they rarely wait for consensus.
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The Story in the Data
Buyers paused. Renters didn’t.
Each bar below is the number of homes that sold that month — a read on how active the market is.
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After five straight months of acceleration, July exhaled: 5,773 sales, 11% fewer than June, with prices easing about 5%. But here’s the twist our data caught — the same week buyers stepped back, renting hit its busiest month in at least a year (11,870 leases signed — see Rental Watch above). People didn’t leave the market; they moved to the sidelines — and the sidelines are getting crowded.
Competition: the share selling over asking
How often homes sold above their list price each month — a read on how competitive buyers have been.
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| What “sold over asking” means: a home sold above its list price — not necessarily above market value, since homes are often listed below market on purpose to spark competing offers. Read it as a gauge of buyer competition, not price growth. For where values actually sit, the average-price charts above are the better guide. |
Even in a cooler July, nearly 1 in 5 homes still sold over list — competition eased from spring’s 23%, it didn’t evaporate. Watch September: if the sidelined demand now renting steps back in, this dip will read as the pause it was.
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So what does this mean for you?
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As a Seller
July’s pause is pricing information, not a verdict: 11% fewer sales and a 5% softer average mean buyers got selective — but 18% of homes still sold over asking, so well-priced, well-presented listings are transacting. Price to August’s market, not May’s, and if your home needs work before it can compete, that’s exactly what our Seller Advantage program below is for.
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As a Buyer
This is the first month all year with prices and competition down at the same time — the most negotiating room since winter, while insured 5-year money sits at 3.25–3.94%. And with a record number of would-be buyers parked in rentals, the quiet window rarely stays quiet. Get pre-approved now; shop while the market’s attention is at the cottage. One more edge from the data: bidding is concentrated in the $1M–$1.5M move-up bracket (21.8% sold over asking in July) — under $750K it was just 14.8%, so first-time buyers face less competition than the headlines suggest.
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Neighbourhood spotlight: Durham Region
715 homes traded in Durham in July at an $837K average, with 22.4% selling over asking — comfortably hotter than the GTA’s 18%. Oshawa was the busiest market in the region; Ajax buyers were the most competitive, with more than 1 in 4 homes going over list. And on space for money, Durham is still the GTA’s best deal: freeholds traded at a median $488 per square foot in July versus $791 in Toronto — about 60% more house for the same dollar.
| Municipality | Sold | Avg Price | Over Asking |
| Oshawa | 177 | $696,428 | 27.1% |
| Whitby | 135 | $896,754 | 17.8% |
| Clarington | 128 | $755,006 | 20.3% |
| Ajax | 109 | $910,452 | 28.4% |
| Pickering | 100 | $946,562 | 22.0% |
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Rental Watch
The other market: renting has never been busier this year
Extracted from MLS by SYNERGY · Toronto + 13 GTA municipalities · lease transactions
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11,870
leases signed in July
▲ 11.9% MoM · 12-month high |
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12,805
homes available to rent
all property types |
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0.9
months of condo supply
at July’s leasing pace |
| Property type | Available now |
Leased in July | Months (summer pace) | Months (12-mo pace) |
| Condo apartment | 7,534 | 9,161 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Detached | 3,672 | 1,601 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Semi-detached | 861 | 473 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Townhouse | 738 | 635 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| All rentals | 12,805 | 11,870 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Months of supply = homes available now ÷ average monthly leases — over the past 3 months (“summer pace”) and over the past 12 months (smooths out seasonality; July is peak leasing season). Under ~2 months favours landlords.
Months of Rental Supply by Municipality
All four property types · 12-month leasing pace to smooth seasonality · SYNERGY MLS extract
Renting vs. buying, head to head
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2.4×
Leases per home sold, GTA
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3.4:1
Toronto · rental-first
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0.6:1
Brampton · ownership-first
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Leases signed vs. homes sold, July 2026 · SYNERGY MLS extract
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SYNERGY's Read
Forget the “renter’s market” headlines for a moment: across everything we track, there are only 5,271 entire homes (detached, semi, townhouse) available to rent — just 2,168 of them in Toronto proper — and condos are being absorbed in about a month. If you’re renting a condo, the practical leverage is in incentives, not selection. The chart above uses a full year of leasing to strip out seasonality, and the squeeze is remarkably uniform: condo supply hovers around a single month in all 14 municipalities, townhouses are not far behind, and it is only detached homes — 3.3 months in Toronto, roughly 3 across York Region — where supply meaningfully loosens. The real negotiating room is in houses: detached homes sit around 2.4–2.7 months depending on the season — landlords of houses are the ones who’ll talk. And if you’re weighing renting against buying: July’s record leasing is demand that hasn’t left the market — it’s demand waiting at the gate.
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Latest News
What we're watching
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The backdrop to our Rental Watch numbers
Two independent data points this month line up with what our own extract is showing. Urbanation counted zero new condo-project launches in the GTHA for a second straight quarter, with the construction pipeline now down 62% from its 2022 peak — and since a large share of GTA condos are investor-owned, that pipeline is tomorrow's rental supply. At the same time, national tracking showed apartment vacancy tightening in Q2 for the first time in over two years. Less future supply, returning demand — the rental cushion is thinner than the headlines suggest.
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Links go to third-party articles; we can't guarantee their accuracy — always confirm the specifics for your own situation.
Have a question about how any of this affects your move? Just reply to this email — you'll get our honest take.
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Rate Watch
Best 5-Year Fixed 3.94% insured · 4.14% conventional |
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Best 5-Year Variable 3.25% insured · 3.50% conventional |
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BoC Overnight Rate 2.25% Held Jul 15 · next Sep 2 |
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on July 15 — its third straight hold — noting growth is picking up and inflation should ease gradually. The next decision lands September 2. Insured mortgages (under 20% down) price lower than conventional ones — and the lowest rate isn't always the best strategy; it depends on your timeline and risk tolerance. Read the Bank's statement →
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How rates connect
Variable rates follow the Bank of Canada. When the Bank moves its rate, the banks' prime rate moves with it — and variable mortgages and credit lines are priced off prime.
Fixed rates follow the bond market. They track Government of Canada bond yields, which move on their own — so a fixed rate can change even when the Bank holds steady.
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Terrence's Tax Tip
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Moving up but keeping your current home as a rental? The moment it changes use, the CRA treats it as if you sold it at market value — which can quietly start the clock on capital gains. Filed on time, a subsection 45(2) election can defer that deemed sale and protect your principal-residence exemption for up to four more years. Get the election and the paper trail right before the tenants move in, and the tax picture changes completely.
General information only — not tax advice. Every situation is different, so please get professional guidance before acting.
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Synergy Sweepstakes
Win two tickets to the Blue Jays
Enter our free draw for a pair of seats to Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals · Thursday, August 27 — on us. No purchase necessary, one entry per household.
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This month's featured listings
Just Reduced
4060 Lawrence Ave E #402
West Hill
Now $299,000 (was $319,990) · 2 bd / 1 ba · 2-storey, 1,000+ sq ft. Renovated with new flooring, a large balcony and ensuite laundry — gym, indoor pool and parking included. A smart entry-level buy.
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For Sale
250 Macdonald Avenue
Belleville
$479,000 · 3 bd / 2 ba · 1,100+ sq ft. Bright split-level detached with an attached garage and a sunny front deck, minutes to downtown Belleville. Detached-home ownership at a price the GTA hasn't seen in a decade.
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View all active SYNERGY listings →
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SYNERGY Seller Advantage
We finance your pre-sale renovations
Need to sell but your home needs work? We help fund strategic pre-sale renovations so it shows better and sells for more. Backed by 135+ 5-star reviews.
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Additional resources
SYNERGY Sweepstakes
Win two Blue Jays tickets — enter this month's free draw.
Enter the Draw → |
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SYNERGY Savings
10–20% off Little Canada, the Toronto Zoo & Ripley’s Aquarium.
Get the Codes → |
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SOL Properties
Relocation, investment & snowbird living beyond the GTA.
Visit SOL → |
Homeowner fix-it corner — Need a part for a home appliance? We like Reliable Parts: a Canadian distributor with OEM parts for all the major brands (Samsung, LG, Whirlpool, GE, Frigidaire and more), good pricing and same-day shipping. Fixing a $40 part beats replacing a $1,500 appliance.
Find your part at reliableparts.ca →
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Sweepstakes is a random draw, open to Ontario residents of the age of majority, and is not contingent on any transaction. Third-party vendors are independent businesses; we don't receive compensation for mentions.
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Thinking about your next move?
Whether you're buying your first home, selling a family property, growing an investment portfolio, or acquiring commercial real estate, our team brings the experience to help you decide with confidence.
Why SYNERGY
| ✓ 50+ years combined experience | ✓ $500M+ in real estate sold | | ✓ Residential, commercial, investment & pre-construction | ✓ Market intelligence from daily MLS analysis | | ✓ In-house tax, investment & financial-planning insight | ✓ Trusted across the GTA & Durham Region |
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SYNERGY Real Estate Group · 416-809-SOLD (7653) · admin@synergysold.ca · REAL Broker Ontario Ltd.
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This newsletter is provided for general information only and is not tax, legal, financial, or real estate advice; every situation is different, so please consult the appropriate professional before acting. Market figures are drawn from TRREB/MLS data believed reliable but are not guaranteed. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
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